我国城市生活垃清运量预测及垃圾处理技术发展趋势研究.pdfVIP

摘 要 随着城市化进程的加速，我国的城市数量和城市规模不断扩大，城市人口逐年增 加，城市生活垃圾产生量急剧上升，垃圾成分日趋改变，城市生活垃圾处理设施不足、 垃圾处理设施的规划建设和垃圾处理技术的发展等问题亟代解决。 针对上述问题，本文以我国 1990～2003 年的城市生活垃圾清运量为基础，分析 影响我国城市生活垃圾清运量变化的主要因素，以此为基础提出基于预测后续有效度 的城市生活垃圾清运量最优单项预测模型和基于预测有效度一致的城市生活垃圾清 运量最优组合预测模型，并分别利用两种模型对我国“十一五”期间的城市生活垃圾 清运量进行预测，为我国有关部门制定环境卫生规划和垃圾管理政策提供决策依据。 本文还对我国的城市生活垃圾处理现状和垃圾处理技术的发展进行了初探，分析了我 国垃圾处理技术发展过程中存在的问题及其制约因素。 研究分析表明，在城市化水平不断提高的情况下，我国未来几年的城市生活垃圾 清运量将大幅度增长。垃圾清运量和成分的变化将影响我国垃圾处理技术的发展方 向，我国将在发展城市生活垃圾综合处理技术的基础上，对填埋、焚烧、堆肥等单一 处理技术提出发展要求，以实现城市生活垃圾的减量化、资源化和无害化。 关键词：城市生活垃圾 清运量 单项预测 组合预测 垃圾处理技术 发展方向 IV Abstract Due to the accelerating urbanization, the number of cities in China is increasing, the cities are extending, the urban population is ascending., those make the output of municipal solid waste is turning up sharply, and the composition of MSW in Chinese cities are changing year by year. Then the lack of waste disposal facilities, the planning and construction, the development of disposal technology, those problems should be solved. Aimed at those problems, this thesis analyzed some key factors that influencing the delivering quantity of MSW according to statistical data of recent years, and propound two forecasting models for delivering quantity: the optimal single model based on later fitting precision, and the optimal combining model based on consistent predicting precision. Using the models, this thesis forecasted the MSW delivering quantity in the forthcoming years, to provide fundamental data for the MSW management and disposal decision making by administration and governments. This thesis also discussed the actual state of waste disposal and the disposal technology in China, analyzed the problems and facto