城市轨道交通客流预测方法.pdf

第30 卷 第5 期 长安大学学报( 自然科学版) Vol. 30 No.5 2010 年9 月 Journal of hangpan University(Natural Science Edition) Sept. 2010 : 1671-8879( 2010) 05-0069- 06 1 1 1, 2 马超群 , 陈宽民, 王玉萍 ( 1. , 710064; 2. , 710055) : 为了提高城市轨道 通客流预测的可靠性, 对目前中国采用的预测方法进行了分析,建立 了通勤出行的生成-分布共生模型来预测高峰小时的出行发生( 吸引) 及分布, 并基于综合 通网络 提出了方式划分与分配组合模型, 以西安地铁 3 号线为例, 进行了方式划分与路径分配的联合应 用结果表明: 改进后的模型能有效地进行轨道 通客流预测; 西安地铁3 号线初近远期的全日 4 4 4 客运量分别为39.00@ 10 人次74.76@ 10 人次106.08@ 10 人次; 初近远期的高峰小时单向 4 4 4 最高断面流量分别为1.69@ 10 人次3.08@ 10 人次3.75@ 10 人次 : 通工程; 轨道 通; 四阶段法; 出行生成-分布共生模型; 方式划分与分配组合模型 :U491. 1 :A Forecasting model of urban rail transit volume 1 1 1, 2 MA hao-qun , HEN Kuan-min , WANG Yu-ping ( 1. School of Highw ay, hangpan University, Xpian 710064, Shaanxi, hina; 2. School of ivil Engineering, Xpi an University of Architecture Technology, Xipan 710055, Shaanxi, hina) Abstract: In order to improve the reliability of urban rail transit volume forecasting, the forecas- ting methods used at present in hina were analyzed, the trip generation-distribution symbiosis model for commuting trip was built to forecast trip production and attraction and trip distribution in peak-hour. Based on an integrated transport network, the combined model of mode split and traffic assignment was built. T he improved model is applied to Xipan metro line 3 as an example. The results indicate that the improved model can estimate the passenger flow effe