A Mathematical Model of Continuous HIV Mutations Eluding Immune Defence.pdfVIP

Journal of Theoretical Medicine, 2002 Vol. 4 (4), pp. 241–249 A Mathematical Model of Continuous HIV Mutations Eluding Immune Defence D.P. WILSON* and D.L.S. MCELWAIN Centre in Statistical Science and Industrial Mathematics, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia (Received 2 July 2002; In final form 9 December 2002) We develop a description of HIV mutations based upon a continuum representation of the fitness of the virus, including the interaction of the virus with both specific Th1 lymphocytes as well as cross-reactive cells. This deterministic model allows a straightforward measure of the diversity of viral population and reproduces the observed increase in diversity as the disease progresses in an untreated patient. We use the diversity threshold theory, extending the modelling to track mutations on a continuum. When the diversity threshold is exceeded, the host immune system collapses. Keywords: HIV; Mutation; Diversity Threshold; Mathematical Model INTRODUCTION cellular DNA, translation forming polypeptides and protease, and cleaving of polypeptides by protease into The development of AIDS is associated with the depletion functional HIV proteins, the infected cell is stimulated to of the most crucial cell type of the immune system, the produce copies of the virus, releasing hundreds, or even CD4þ helper T lymphocyte. This occurs after a period of thousands, of free virus particles that can infect other clinical latency v