基于鲁棒Holt-Winter模型的超短期配变负荷预测方法.pdfVIP

38 卷 10 期 电 网 技 术 Vol. 38 No. 10 20 14 年10 月 Power System Technology Oct. 2014 文章编号：1000-3673 （20 14）10-2810-06 中图分类号：TM 72 1 文献标志码：A 学科代码：470 4051 基于鲁棒Holt-Winter 模型的 超短期配变负荷预测方法 1 1 2 1 吴越强 ，吴文传 ，李飞 ，张伯明 1．电力系统及发电设备控制和仿真国家重点实验室(清华大学电机系) ，北京市 海淀区 100084； 2．贵州电网公司，贵州省 贵阳市 550002 ） Ultra-Short Term Load Forecasting Using Robust Holt-Winter in Distribution Network 1 1 2 1 NGO Vietcuong , WU Wenchuan , LI Fei , ZHANG Boming (1. State Key Lab of Control and Simulation of Power Systems and Generation Equipments (Dept. of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University), Haidian District, Beijing 100084, China; 2. Guizhou Power Grid Company, Guiyang 550002, Guizhou Province, China) ABSTRACT: The ultra-short term load forecasting results can DOI 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2014.10.030 be used as the pseudo measurements for state estimation in 0 引言 distribution network, in which the historical load data are collected by automatic meter reading system. And the 超短期负荷预测是指预测未来几分钟到几个 prediction precision significantly influences the state 小时内的负荷曲线，主要应用在电网的实时调度[1] estimation. This paper presents a robust ultra-short term load [2] 和安全预警 等方面；而超短期配变负荷预测的一 forecasting method which is based on Holt-winter model. The 个主要应用是为配电网状态估计提供伪量测。在配 method considers a linear trend, seasonal change and random fluctuations in the time sequence, and the exponential 电网中，电量计费系统每15 min 可以采集一次配变 smoothing method is also combined.