基于盲数理论的变电站工程全寿命周期成本估算.pdfVIP

第 34 卷 第 3 期 电 网 技 术 Vol. 34 No. 3 2010 年 3 月 Power System Technology Mar. 2010 文章编号：1000-3673 （2010 ）03-0141-05 中图分类号：TM 63 ；F 224 文献标志码：A 学科代码：470·4051 基于盲数理论的变电站工程全寿命周期成本估算 路石俊，李翔 （华北电力大学经济与管理学院，北京市 昌平区 102206 ） Full Life-Cycle Cost Estimation of Substation Project Based on Blind Number Theory LU Shi-jun, LI Xiang (School of Economy and Management, North China Electric Power University, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China) ABSTRACT: There are many uncertain impacting factors in 析只能处理随机不确定性，为解决此问题，国内一 full life-cycle cost (LCC) of substation, and the blind 些学者将人工智能、模糊数学、灰色系统等理论引 information affects the accuracy of estimation result of LCC. 入到变电站工程投资决策中[5]，建立投资估算模型， To quantitatively analyze the affects of blind information on 并取得了比较满意的成果，但是这些模型都不包括 substation cost the blind number theory is led in and a blind number model of full life-cycle cost of substation is built. 对项目使用期运行和维护成本的管理，没有形成一 Taking a certain substation for example, its full life-cycle cost 个闭环的控制过程[6-8] 。因此有必要应用全寿命周期 is estimated by qualitative expert forecasting method. The 成本(full life-cycle cost，LCC)理论对变电站工程项 estimation results show that comparing with traditional 目成本进行管理。 deterministic model, possible distribution intervals of full 本文将首先建立变电站工程 LCC 模型，同时 life-cycle of substation can be attained by blind number model, 引入盲数理论来处理其中存在的多种不确定信息， in addition, the confidence levels of different intervals can also be obtained, and