基于模糊理论的城市电网风险识别与评价.pdfVIP

第 34 卷 第 9 期 电 网 技 术 Vol. 34 No. 9 2010 年 9 月 Power System Technology Sep. 2010 文章编号：1000-3673 （2010 ）09-0127-06 中图分类号：TM 715 文献标志码：A 学科代码：470·4051 基于模糊理论的城市电网风险识别与评价 1 1 1 1 2 何永秀 ，戴爱英 ，杨卫红 ，方锐 ，LI Furong （1．华北电力大学 经济与管理学院，北京市 昌平区 102206 ；2．巴斯大学，巴斯 BA2 7AY ，英国） Identification and Evaluation of Risk in Urban Network Planning Based on Fuzzy Theory 1 1 1 1 2 HE Yongxiu , DAI Aiying , YANG Weihong , FANG Rui , LI Furong (1. School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China; 2. University of Bath, Bath BA2 7AY, UK) ABSTRACT: To enhance the scientificity of urban power 规划项目的经济性和可靠性角度建立了经济风险 network planning, it is necessary to identify and evaluate the 评估指标体系。文献[3]采用美国加州独立系统调度 risks in urban power network. In this paper, a questionnaire of 员提出的 Team 框架下的 4 个经济指标对输电规划 urban power network concerning the risks in domestic urban 项目进行评估。文献[4]认为电网规划面临许多不确 power network is designed; then based on fuzzy membership theory the possibility of occurring risk in different stages, i.e., 定性因素(如电源规划、未来负荷以及系统潮流等) ， planning stage, feasibility study stage, construction stage and 投资风险高，对整体经济影响很大。文献[5]主要运 operation stage, etc., and the extent of damage are quantized; 用元件停运模型和负荷曲线模型进行城市电网评 and then the comprehensive quantization score of each risk are 估，元件停运模型主要考虑元件风险，负荷曲线模 given; finally, the key risks, which special attention should paid 型主要考虑负荷点风险。文献[6]从经济风险和技术 to in planning, construction and operation stages of