大规模风能开发的动态模型及关键影响因素分析.pdfVIP

第 36 卷 第 7 期 电 网 技 术 Vol. 36 No. 7 2012 年 7 月 Power System Technology Jul. 2012 文章编号：1000-3673 （2012 ）07-0184-07 中图分类号：F 416.2 ；TM 614 文献标志码：A 学科代码：470·4054 大规模风能开发的动态模型及关键影响因素分析 赵文会，谢品杰，侯建朝，施泉生 （上海电力学院经济与管理学院，上海市 杨浦区 200090 ） A Dynamic Model of Large-Scale Wind Energy Development and Analysis on Its Key Influencing Factors ZHAO Wenhui, XIE Pinjie, HOU Jianchao, SHI Quansheng (School of Economics and Management, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Yangpu District, Shanghai 200090, China) ABSTRACT: To develop wind energy sources in large-scale 关键词：动态模型；风能开发；关键影响因素；情景模拟； and draft rational wind energy development strategy, it is 敏感性分析 necessary to consider main indices of wind power system its 0 引言 own and define its key influencing factors. Based on the analysis on wind power system, dynamic equations of wind 随着近年来我国工业化、城市化进程的日益加 power system are constructed and taking the progress of wind 快，电力需求量快速增长。中外学者围绕着电力安 power technology into account the parameters of wind power 全、电价、电网规划、电力市场等问题展开了深入 system are estimated. Taking the potential of large-scale development of wind energy in China for example, the 研究[1-4] 。然而，随着全球能源短缺、能源供应安全 simulation and sensitivity analysis of time-varying main 形势的日趋严峻、应对气候变化呼声的日益高涨， indices of wind power system under two wind power 以及低碳经济这一人类面对地球生态严重失衡重 development strategies, namely the rapid development and the