水电机组状态退化评估与非线性预测.pdfVIP

37 卷 5 期 电 网 技 术 Vol. 37 No. 5 2013 年5 月 Power System Technology May 2013 章编号：1000-3673 （20 13）05-1378-06 中图分类号：TM 721 献标志码：A 学科代码：470 4051 水电机组状态退化评估与非线性预测 安学利，潘罗平，张飞，唐拥军 ( 中国水利水电科学研究院，北京市 海淀区 100038 ） Condition Degradation Assessment and Nonlinear Prediction of Hydropower Unit AN Xueli, PAN Luoping, ZHANG Fei, TANG Yongj un (China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Haidian District, Beij ing 100038, China) ABSTRACT: Based on Shepard surface, ensemble empirical 曲面；EEMD 方法；混沌理论；灰色理论 mode decomposition (EEMD), chaos theory and grey theory, 0 引言 a model to assess and predict condition degradation trend of hydropower unit is proposed. Firstly, utilizing Shepard surface 水电机组是涉及机械、电气和水力的复杂系 a condition degradation trend model of hydropower unit, in [1-2] 统 ，机组各设备随着累积运行时间的增加，不断 which the actions of active power and working head are 劣化，各设备性能会经历由正常(健康)状态逐渐退 synthetically considered, is established; secondly the condition [3-5] 化直至失效的过程 。如何有效地确定机组的真实 degradation trend of hydropower unit is decomposed by EEMD to obtain several relatively steady intrinsic mode function 状态，对机组退化趋势进行更好地预测，以便及时 (IMF) components and a remainder term component, and then 发现机组异常，合理安排检修，是水电机组由计划 each IMF component is identified and according to their 检修向状态检修转变的重要课题。 different attributes the chaotic prediction model or grey 目前水电机组故障诊断技术还不能满足现场 model are chosen to perform prediction, meanwhile t