disability, dementia and the future costs of long-term care.pptVIP

Disability, Dementia and the Future Costs of Long-Term Care Adelina Comas-Herrera In collaboration with Raphael Wittenberg, Linda Pickard, Derek King, Juliette Malley and other colleagues Personal Social Services Research Unit London School of Economics and Political Science Contact: as@lse.ac.uk Projecting the costs of long-term care into the future We know we will get the wrong answer, unless we manage to develop perfect foresight! But it is still useful to make projections: To understand the drivers of change. Not all variables involve the same level of uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis is vital to understand the robustness of projections. This is particularly important when making projections about different ways of financing LTC that may affect policy decisions. Funnel of doubt: Long-term care expenditure in the UK as % of GDP Determinants of future LTC costs Demographic changes. Trends in functional dependency/cognitive impairment. Availability (and propensity to provide) informal care. Structure of the LTC system and patterns of care. Financing system. Relative price of LTC and other goods and services. Economic growth and other macroeconomic factors. Values and public expectations about the quality, range and level of care. Other factors? Quality/adaptability of housing, pensions… Making projections of future LTC expenditure: the PSSRU aggregate model The PSSRU aggregate model aims to make projections of: Numbers of disabled older people Long-term care services and disability benefits Long-term care expenditure: public and private Social care workforce The results are highly sensitive to changes in the assumptions made about future disability rates. What should we assume about future disability rates? The PSSRU LTC CI model Based on the England PSSRU aggregate LTC model Data from MRC-CFAS and PSSRU surveys of residents in care homes is used to estimate the prevalence of CI and the proportion of care users who have CI. Older people and users of