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a multicriteria decision model for selecting a portfolio of

Pesquisa Operacional (2013) 33(3): 417-441 © 2013 Brazilian Operations Research Society Printed version ISSN 0101-7438 / Online version ISSN 1678-5142 www.scielo.br/pope A MULTICRITERIA DECISION MODEL FOR SELECTING A PORTFOLIO OF OIL AND GAS EXPLORATION PROJECTS Yuri Gama Lopes1* and Adiel Teixeira de Almeida2 Received October 28, 2011 / Accepted June 6, 2013 ABSTRACT. As well as exploratory activity being at the heart of and guiding the future of the oil industry, it is fundamental that there be a comprehensive analysis covering the various factors and nuances that arise in the selection of exploration projects. Moreover, it is essential that a decision model enables the decision- maker’s preferences to be addressed in a structured (and methodologically correct) way, and one which is easy to understand and to apply in a real-world. Therefore, this paper proposes a multicriteria decision model which underpins using a deterministic procedure for selecting a portfolio of oil and gas exploration projects and thereafter a reality-based application is set out, based on a decision making context within Petrobras. Keywords: portfolio selection, exploration projects, multicriteria decision aid. 1 INTRODUCTION Portfolio management is the centralized management of one or more portfolios, which includes identifying, prioritizing, approving, managing and controlling projects, programs, and any re- lated works, in order to achieve speciﬁc, strategic business objectives (PMI, 2008). Speciﬁcally, the step of selecting and prioritizing projects and portfolios is a theme that has been widely dis- cussed in the literature (Lin Ji, 2007; Gomes et al., 2010; Almeida Duarte, 2011; Vetschera Almeida, 2012). According to Levine (2005), the goal of this step is to