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th 18 World IMACS / MODSIM Congress, Cairns, Australia 13-17 July 2009 .au/modsim09 An extended regression approach to estimating loads and their uncertainties in Great Barrier Reef catchments 1 2 3 4 Wang, Y-G. , P. Kuhnert , B. Henderson and L. Stewart 1CSIRO Division of Mathematical and Information Sciences, Indooroopilly, Queensland 2 CSIRO Division of Mathematical and Information Sciences, Cleveland, Queensland 3CSIRO Mathematical and Information Sciences, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 4CSIRO Land and Water, Townsville, Queensland Email: you-gan.wang@csiro.au Abstract: T here are n umerous l oad est imation m ethods avai lable, som e of w hich a re capt ured i n various online t ools. However, m ost estim ators are subject to large biases statistica lly, and t heir ass ociated uncertainties are often not rep orted. Th is makes in terpretation d ifficult an d th e estimatio n o f trend s o r determination of optimal sampling regimes impossible to assess. In this paper, we first propose two indices for measuring the extent of sampling bias, and then provide steps for o btaining reliable l oad estimates by minimizing t he bi ases an d making use of p ossible predictive variables. The load estimation procedure can be summarized by the following four steps. (i) output t he flow rat es at re gular t ime intervals (e. g.10 m inutes) using a t ime seri es model t hat captures all the peak flows; (ii) output the predicted flow rates as i n (i) at the concentration sampling times, if the corresponding flow rates are