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capital flows among the stronggstrong-7 nations a demographic perspective
Capital Flows Among the G-7 Nations:
A Demographic Perspective
Michael Feroli∗
Federal Reserve Board
Division of Research and Statistics
October, 2003
Abstract
The standard life-cycle model of consumption behavior predicts that a household’s
age will influence its saving behavior. Moreover, simple national accounting identities
reveal that a country’s current account balance reflects its savings-investment imbal-
ance. Thus, differences in national age-profiles should affect the current account. To
test this theory’s plausibility and significance, I simulate a multi-region overlapping
generations model that is calibrated to match the demographic differences among the
major industrialized countries over the past 50 years. In the model, it is found that
these differences can explain some of the observed long-term capital movements in the
G-7. In particular, the model does a good job of predicting the size and timing of
American current account deficits as well as Japanese current account surpluses.
Keywords: International Capital Flows, Demographic Transitions, Current Account
Dynamics.
JEL Classifi cation: F21, F47, J10.
∗I thank Fabrizio Perri for his advice and encouragement. William Baumol, Jess Benhabib, Darrel Cohen
and Bill Wascher made helpful comments on earlier drafts of this paper. I also benefitted from conversations
with Robin Brooks, Douglas Elmendorf and Gianluca Violante. The views presented are solely those of
the author and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Board or its staff. Corresponding
e-mail: Michael.E.
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