Guyana Why Has Growth Stopped An Empirical Study on the.pdf

WP/07/86 Guyana: Why Has Growth Stopped? An Empirical Study on the Stagnation of Economic Growth Cornelia Staritz, Ruben Atoyan, and Judith Gold © 2007 International Monetary Fund WP/07/86 IMF Working Paper WHD Guyana: Why Has Growth Stopped? An Empirical Study 1 on the Stagnation of Economic Growth Prepared by Cornelia Staritz, Judith Gold, Ruben Atoyan Authorized for distribution by Robert Rennhack April 2007 Abstract This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. After a period of exceptionally strong economic performance, Guyana’s growth has stagnated since 1998. The paper tries to identify the factors that can explain this dramatic deterioration in economic performance. The paper first attempts to explain the decline of growth with a growth accounting exercise which shows that there was a significant swing in total factor productivity, and than uses a panel regression framework to analyze the growth impact of changes in various factors. Finally, through a series of cross-country exercises, the paper shows that the primary reaso