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Institutions, Economic Recovery, and Macroeconomic
Vulnerability in Indonesia and Malaysia
Thomas Pepinsky
Department of Political Science
Yale University
P.O. Box 208301
New Haven, CT 06511
thomas.pepinsky@
This version: October 24, 2006
8500 words (including notes)
Prepared for the workshop East Asia Ten Years After the Crisis
The University of California-Berkeley
November 3-4, 2006
DRAFT: Comments welcome!
Please do not cite without permission
Institutions, Economic Recovery, and Macroeconomic
*
Vulnerability in Indonesia and Malaysia
1. Introduction
In Indonesia and Malaysia, the Asian Financial Crisis was as much a political crisis as an
economic one. Policies adopted by the respective governments had fostered over a decade of
strong economic growth, but this growth came with structural weaknesses that left each country
vulnerable to the vagaries of investor confidence and cross-border capital movements. These
weaknesses arose from each country’s political economy: in each country an autocratic
government used economic policy and political favoritism to reward its supporters with little
regard for their potential downstream costs. The Asian Financial Crisis led each country to take
extraordinary adjustment measures, and ignited distributional conflicts that ultimately drove
Soeharto from power and severely tested the ruling coalition in Malaysia. Subsequently, the
years since the crisis have seen political contests in each country over the implementation of
reforms designed to fost
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