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Measuring the Economic Impact of Civil War
Kosuke Imai and Jeremy Weinstein
CID Working Paper No. 51
June 2000
Copyright 2000 Kosuke Imai and Jeremy Weinstein
and the President and Fellows of Harvard College
This paper can be downloaded in PDF format from:
/cidwp/051.pdf
Measuring the Economic Impact of Civil War
Jeremy M. Weinstein and Kosuke Imai
Abstract
Civil wars impose substantial costs on the domestic economy. We empirically
measure the economic impact of such internal wars. The paper contributes to the existing
literature both theoretically and methodologically. First, it explores the economic
channels through which civil war affects growth. Previous studies have shown the
negative growth effects of civil wars. We go a step further by identifying the channels
through which war strips a country of its growth potential. Our argument is that civil war
negatively impacts private investment through the process of portfolio substitution.
Methodologically, the paper improves on both the data and statistical models used in the
existing literature. Our data set includes better measurements of the intensity and scope of
civil war as well as new economic and political data for the 1990s. Moreover, using a
multiple imputation technique, we minimize the estimation bias due to missing data.
Finally, to improve the model, we apply fixed and random effects models to the panel
data.
The evidence gives strong support to our argument indicating that the driving force
behind the negative effects of civil war on economic growth is a decrease in private
investment.
Keywords: civil war, instability, economic growth, investment, fiscal balance
JEL codes: C23, E62, O11
Jeremy M. Weinstein is a PhD Candidate in Political Econ
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