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Vol 458 | 19 March 2009 | doi:10.1038/nature07809
LETTERS
Modelling West Antarctic ice sheet growth and
collapse through the past five million years
David Pollard1 Robert M. DeConto2
The West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS), with ice volume equivalent to the model with simple parameterizations of surface mass balance, air
1
5 m of sea level , has long been considered capable of past and temperature and specified sea level. A new parameterization of sub-
future catastrophic collapse2–4. Today, the ice sheet is fringed by ice-shelf ocean melt based on modern observations14–16 accounts for
vulnerable floating ice shelves that buttress the fast flow of inland changes in the shape of coastlines and distance from the ice edge to
17
ice streams. Grounding lines are several hundred metres below sea open ocean (see Methods).
level and the bed deepens upstream, raising the prospect of runaway Before considering long-term simulations, it is helpful to examine
3,5
retreat . Projections of future WAIS behaviour have been the link between equilibrated ice-sheet states and the strength of
hampered by limited understanding of past variations and their various forcing mechanisms (Fig. 1) representative of extreme inter-
underlying forcing mechanisms6,7. Its variation since the Last glacial (left of graphs), modern interglacial (middle) and full glacial
Glacial Maximum is best known, with grounding lines advancing (right) conditions. In between the values shown, each forcing is
to the continenta
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