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Models for Longitudinal Network Data
Tom A.B. Snijders
ICS, Department of Sociology
University of Groningen
November 23, 2006
Abstract
This chapter treats statistical methods for network evolution. It
is argued that it is most fruitful to consider models where network
evolution is represented as the result of many (usually non-observed)
small changes occurring between the consecutively observed networks.
Accordingly, the focus is on models where a continuous-time network
evolution is assumed although the observations are made at discrete
time points (two or more).
Three models are considered in detail, all based on the assump-
tion that the observed networks are outcomes of a Markov process
evolving in continuous time. The independent arcs model is a trivial
baseline model. The reciprocity model expresses effects of reciprocity,
but lacks other structural effects. The actor-oriented model is based
on a model of actors changing their outgoing ties as a consequence of
myopic stochastic optimization of an objective function. This frame-
work offers the flexibility to represent a variety of network effects. An
estimation algorithm is treated, based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo
implementation of the method of moments.
1
1 Some basic ideas about
longitudinal social network data
The statistical modeling of social networks is difficult because of the com-
plicated dependence structures of the processes underlying their genesis and
development. One might think that the statistical modeling of longitudinal
data on social networks is more difficult than modeling single observations
of social networks. It is plausible, however, that in many cases, the rules
defining
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