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Moderate Inflation and the Deflation-Depression Link
Jess Benhabib
New York University
And
Mark M. Spiegel*
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
ABSTRACT
Recent research has concluded that the historical evidence only provides weak
support for the contention that deflation episodes are harmful to economic growth. In this
paper, we revisit this relationship by allowing for inflation and growth to have a non-
linear specification dependent on inflation levels. In particular, we allow for the
possibility that high inflation is negatively correlated with growth, while a positive
relationship exists over the range of negative-to-moderate inflation. Our results confirm a
positive relationship between inflation and growth at moderate inflation levels, and
support the contention that the relationship between inflation and growth is non-linear
over the entire sample range.
Keywords: Inflation, deflation, depression, growth, empirics
JEL Classification: E5, E52, E58, E6, E65, E42, E3, E31
*Corresponding author. Helpful comments were received from Ken West and two
anonymous referees. We thank Andy Atkeson, David Backus and Warren Weber for
providing us with the data. Christopher Candelaria provided excellent research assistance.
The views expressed in this paper are our own and do not necessarily reflect those of the
Federal Reserve Board of Governors or the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
1. Introduction
Policymakers since the Great Depression have been concerned that deflation can
lead to lower growth rates, if not recessions, and the recent Japanese experience has
exacerbated such concerns [see Krugman,(1997)]. However, theoretical models offer
differing perspectives. Milton Friedman’s argument that f
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