高层住宅价格的影响因素与空间分布规律研究详解.doc

高层住宅价格的影响因素与空间分布规律研究 ——基于Hedonic、SAR和Kriging差值法 摘要：论文以广州市2009年1月-2010年3月二手交易的596个高层楼盘、3809个交易样本为研究基础，首先进行交易时间修正，发现住宅价格平均日均增幅为9.90元，增幅显著，各板块差异明显；之后采用Hedonic模型和SAR测度了影响房价的主要因素，发现影响广州市高层住宅价格的主要因素是距离商业中心的距离、距离山江公园的距离、噪音、户型间隔、装修档次、装修新旧程度、朝向、楼层、楼龄、阳台数量10项因素。回归分析结果显示：距离商业中心每远1000米，广州市高层住宅单价平均降低1141元；距离白云山等山体、珠江、公园每远1000米，单价平均降低904元；噪音若从“安静或普通”改变为“嘈杂”，则楼盘单价平均下降501.09元；户型间隔若从“普通”提高到“优秀”，则单价上升268.34元；装修档次若从“普通装修”提高到“豪华装修”，则单价上升754.70元；装修新旧程度若从“新”变为“旧”，则单价下降821.56元；朝向若从“北”变为“南”，则单价上升416.86元；楼层每上升1层，单价平均提高54.65元；楼龄每增加1年，单价平均降低302.35元；阳台若从1个增加到两个，单价平均提高130.51元。之前人们关注的小学、幼儿园等“名校效应”对住宅价格的影响未加证实。最后，根据SAR模型将所有交易样本的房价修正到标准房地产状态，运用GIS平台下的Kriging差值法绘制了广州市高层住宅价格空间分布图，发现广州市高层住宅房地产价格整体呈现1个最高值区、1个次高值区、多个高值区，由市中心向外围逐步降低趋势，其中均价20000元/m2 的核心区域形如“海龟”，均价15000元/m2 的中心区域状如“烧饼”。 关键词：高层住宅价格；影响因素；空间分布规律；Hedonic模型；SAR；Kriging差值法 A Study of influencing factors and Spatial Distribution Regularities on High-rise Residential Price ----Based on Hedonic, SAR and Kriging Methods Abstract: The research was conducted based on 3809 cases of secondary exchange, which took place from January 2009 to March 2010 and involved 596 high-rise residential properties in Guangzhou city, China. In the beginning, these samples were amended in exchange time, and we found out that the average increase of housing prices was 9.90 RMB Yuan per day in average, and the increases of each area were quite different. Then Hedonic model and SAR were applied to measure the effects of influencing factors to house price. The regression results included 10 factors, which were the distance to central business districts; the distance to Baiyun Mountain, Zhujiang River and parks; noise level; unit design; decoration grade; the newness rate of decoration; balcony orientation; floor storey; building age and the sum of balcony. The regression results between housing price and factors were: when Distance to central business district increased each additional kilometer, the average housing price for unit square meter would reduce 1141 Yuan. If t