基于多尺度空间分辨率的空间负荷预测误差评价方法.pdfVIP

第 35 卷 第 22 期 中 国 电 机 工 程 学 报 Vol.35 No.22 Nov. 20, 2015 2015 年 11 月 20 日 Proceedings of the CSEE ©2015 Chin.Soc.for Elec.Eng. 5731 DOI ：10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.2015.22.007 文章编号：0258-8013 (2015) 22-5731-09 中图分类号：TM 71 基于多尺度空间分辨率的 空间负荷预测误差评价方法 肖白，蒲睿，穆钢 ( 东北电力大学电气工程学院，吉林省 吉林市 132012) Method of Spatial Load Forecasting Error Evaluation Based on the Multi-scale Spatial Resolution XIAO Bai, PU Rui, MU Gang (Northeast Dianli University, School of Electrical Engineering, Jilin 132012, Jilin Province, China) ABSTRACT: Faced with the difficult problem how to evaluate 边界条件分析 SLF 结果的误差地图，揭示了在不同空间分 spatial error in spatial load forecasting (SLF), the error 辨率下，对相同的空间预测误差的感知程度多数情况并不一 evaluation method of SLF based on the multi-scale spatial 样，甚至还可能完全相反的演变规律，建立了针对既有网架 resolution was proposed. Considering local forecasting error 结构、供电容量和规划目标年负荷水平的 SLF 误差评价机 impacts on the SLF error of the whole, how to calculate local 制，给出了 SLF 误差评价指标。运用该方法对东北某市的 forecasting error impact on the predicted load value of another 一个行政区进行空间负荷预测的工程实例表明，所提出的 location was studied firstly. The extreme scenarios were used SLF 误差评价方法是行之有效的。 as boundary conditions to analyze the error map of SLF results. Under different spatial resolutions, it is brought to light that the 关键词：空间负荷预测；地理信息系统；电力负荷空间分辨 degree of perception is different for the same spatial error and 率；多尺度；空间误差；电力系统规划 the evolution regular changes to be even completely opposite. 0 引言 Aiming at the structure and the supply capacity of existing power grid, and the load level of pla