《欧洲经济接近衰退_债务危机仍未走出阴霾(英文)》.pdfVIP

October 06, 2011 Economics Group Special Commentary Jay H. Bryson, Global Economist jay.bryson@ ● (704) 383-3518 Some Thoughts on Recent European Developments European Central Bank Remains on Hold, For Now The European Central Bank (ECB) decided on October 6 to keep its main policy rate unchanged at 1.50 percent, where it has been maintained over the past three months (Figure 1). After the recent announcement that the “flash” CPI inflation rate for September rose to 3.0 percent, which was much higher than expected, most analysts had not expected the ECB to cut rates at this policy meeting (Figure 2). In his post-meeting press conference ECB President Trichet, who chaired his last meeting of the Governing Council because he is retiring at the end of the month, implicitly linked the decision to remain on hold to concerns about inflation. Trichet said “inflation has remained elevated and incoming information has confirmed our view that inflation is likely to stay above 2% over the months ahead.” Although the ECB expects inflation to remain above its implicit target of 2 percent, the ECB does not think that inflation will rise much further from its current rate. Indeed, the ECB expects inflation to recede slowly in the coming months. Figure 1 Figure 2 European Central Bank Policy Rate Eurozone Consumer Price Inflation Year-over-Year Percent Change 5.0% 5.0% 5%