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HOUSING IS THE BUSINESS CYCLE房地产是商业周期 Edward E. Leamer 本文的结构 一：Introduction 二：The 3-3 rule of US Real GDP 三：Temporal Orderings of Components of GDP 四：Multivariate Confirmation:It`s a Consumer Cycle,Not a Business Cycle 五：Hormones and Housing:It`s a volume cycle not a price cycle 六：The Phases of the Housing Financial Cycle:Hope,Hype,and Havoc 七：The Conflicts between Housing and Inflation TargetingThe Conflicts between Housing and Inflation Targeting 八：By the Way 九：Conclusion Edward E. Leamer, Ph.D /faculty/edward.leamer/ Edward Leamer is the Chauncey J. Medberry Professor of Management, Professor of Economics and Professor of Statistics at UCLA. He received a B.A. degree in mathematics from Princeton University and a Ph.D. degree in economics and an M.A. degree in mathematics from the University of Michigan. After serving as Assistant and Associate Professor at Harvard University he joined the University of California at Los Angeles in 1975 as Professor of Economics and served as Chair from 1983 to 1987. In 1990 he moved to the Anderson Graduate School of Management and was appointed to the Chauncey J. Medberry Chair. Professor Leamer is a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and a Fellow of the Econometric Society. He is a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research and a visiting scholar at the International Monetary Fund and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. He is currently serving as the Director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast. Dr. Leamer has published over 100 articles and 4 books . This research has been supported by continuous grants for over 25 years from the National Science Foundation, the Sloan Foundation and the Russell Sage Foundation. His research papers in econometrics have been collected in Sturdy Econometrics, published in the Edward Elgar Series of Economists of the 20th Century. His research in international economics and econometric methodology has been discussed in a chapter writte