我国国际短期资本流动的影响因素的分析研究.pdfVIP

摘 要 随着我国金融开放力度的加大，国际短期资本流动规模已超过直接投资，成为 我国金融和资本项目下资本流动的主要形式之一，呈现出高流动性、逐利性、流向 不易跟踪等特点，对我国国民经济发展和金融安全产生重大隐患，而我国金融市场 尚不完善，监管体系尚不健全，因此，对国际短期资本流动的影响因素的研究具有 重要的现实意义。 本文在以往国内外学者研究成果的基础上，重点对我国国际短期资本流动的规 模、途径以及影响因素作了详细阐述，在对影响因素的分析中，除了考察国内外经 典文献中常用的经济增长率、利率差和汇率外，还加入了股票市场收益率和房地产 价格指数这两个指标。通过建立我国国际短期资本流动的协整方程，基于 1997 年至 2009 年年度数据，对各影响因素进行计量分析，结果表明利率差、经济增长率、汇 率、股票市场收益率、房地产价格指数均对我国国际短期资本流动有显著影响。与 以往部分学者研究结论不同的是，实际利率差这个因素对中国国际短期资本流动的 解释力度并未减弱，仍然有显著的影响，可能与中国实行相对固定的汇率制度和利 率市场化程度不高有关。 最后，从本文研究的影响因素的角度，提出健全我国股票市场和房地产市场运 行机制、提高我国利率市场化水平和施行内外平衡的发展战略等有针对性的政策建 议。 关键字：国际短期资本流动 利率 汇率 GDP 增长率 I Abstract With the increasing openness of Chinas financial, the international short-term capital flows (SCF) has exceeded the direct investment, becoming one of the major means of capital flows with characteristics as high liquidity, chasing profit, and difficult to track, and it has become a significant risk of China’s financial security. At present, the Chinese financial market is imperfect, and its regulatory system is not sound, thus a study on factors of international short-term capital flows into China has important practical significance. This paper based on the study of the past scholars analyzes China’s status of international short-term capital flows. The stock market returns and real estate price index of these two indicators has been joined into analysis in addition to the GDP growth rate, the interest rate difference and the exchange rates of these three indicators commonly used by classic literature. Through the establishment of cointegration equation on international short-term flows, all factors are quantitatively analyzed based