地球同步轨道高能电子通量预报方法研究.pdfVIP

0254-6124/2013/33(4)-418–09 Chin. J. Space Sci. Guo Ce, Xue Bingsen, Lin Zhaoxiang. Approach for predicting the energetic electron flux in Geosynchronous Earth Orbit. Chin. J. Space Sci., 2013, 33(4): 418-426 Æ 1 2 1 1( 430074) 2( 100081) GOES E 2 MeV Ap , RBF , GOES-12 1 , 2008−2010 . , GOES-12 E 2 MeV 108 cm−2 ·d−1 · sr−1 , FY-2D 108 cm−2 · d−1·sr−1 90% . FY-2D E 2 MeV GOES E 2 MeV , FY-2D , . , , , Ap , P 352 Approach for Predicting the Energetic Electron Flux in Geosynchronous Earth Orbit GUO Ce1 XUE Bingsen2 LIN Zhaoxiang1 1(Electronic and Information Engineering Institute, South-Center University for Nationalities, Wuhan 430074) 2(National Satellite Meteorology Center, Beijing 100081) Abstract Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO) is in the earth’s outer radiation belts, where ener- getic electrons are enriched. The flux of energetic electron will surge after the geomagnetic distur- bance, which is one of the causes for the failure of satellites. So, it is important to predict the electron flux on the geosynchronous orbit in order to prevent the satellite from harming. As the enhancement of electron flux is controlled by many conditions and its temporal and spatial evolution is complex, it needs to analyze various data to make the prediction model. In this work, energetic flux data from GOES-12 was statistically analyzed together with geomagnetic Ap index and solar wind velocity and combination of input parameters was determined. An artificial neural network based model was built and trained with the data mentioned above. The prediction of electron flux of E 2 MeV one day