基于随机点模拟方法分析空间目标危险交会.pdfVIP

0254-6124/2015/35(5)-596–07 Chin. J. Space Sci. Cang Zhongya, Xue Bingsen, Cheng Guosheng, Zhu Xiaolu. Dangerous conjunction analysis of space objects based on random point simulation method (in Chinese). Chin. J. Space Sci., 2015, 35(5): 596-602, doi:10.11728/cjss2015.05.596 ∗ 1,2 2 1 1,2 1( 210044) 2(Æ Æ 100081) SGP4 , , , . , : , ; , . , . , , . , , 10−6 . TLE , SGP4 , , V 528 Dangerous Conjunction Analysis of Space Objects Based on Random Point Simulation Method CANG Zhongya1,2 XUE Bingsen2 CHENG Guosheng1 ZHU Xiaolu1,2 1(Institute of Space Weather, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044) 2(National Satellite Meteorology Center, Beijing 100081) Abstract The position, velocity and prediction error information of space objects can be obtained by using two-line element set and SGP4 model. Based on these results, a new method to calculate the collision probability is proposed, which is called the random point simulation method. There are two differences when this new method is compared with the traditional method of integral in conjunction plane. One is to concern the effects of error bias, which means the error ellipsoid no longer center on the predicted position. The other is to focus on simulating all possible conjunction situations and do not ignore error in each direction. The feasibility of this method is verified by analyzing cases, and results show that the maximum collision probability no longer appears in the time of closest approach because the error