2013年美赛B题O奖分析报告.pdf

Team Number For office use only For office use only T1 ________________ 21185 F1 ________________ T2 ________________ F2 ________________ T3 ________________ F3 ________________ Problem Chosen T4 ________________ F4 ________________ B 2013 Mathematical Contest in Modeling (MCM) Summary Sheet Summary There are mainly three water problems in China: too little water in northern and northwestern part; too much floods in southern part; and too dirty water produced by industry and agricultural pollutants. In order to address problems above and provide a thirteen-year water strategy (2013-2025) for the leadership of China, we conclude five sub-problems and its solution in our paper: 1)Prediction of the supply and demand of water in a period of thirteen years based on historical data;2) Model building of national water storage and movement strategy to solve China鈥檚 uneven distribution of water in time and space; 3)Model designing of regional water de-salinization strategy to increase the total amount of available water;4)Model building of water conservation strategy, including regional water pollution treatment and national water-saving; 5)Long run cost-benefit analysis of four water strategies above and the discussion of the optimal combination of water strategies. In first model, we choose the most appropriate Fitting Function . Using Grey Predicted Model, we can get the correlation degree between water consumption and population, industrial GDP and agricultu