山西旱涝动态诊断.pdfVIP

16 5 V o.l 16, No. 5 2007 10 JOURNA L OF NATURAL D ISA STER S Oct. 2007 : 1004- 4574 2007) 05- 0069- 05 1 1 2 郭慕萍, 刘月丽, 郝寿昌 1. , 030000; 2. , 030000) : , , , , Z , , : ; ; ; : P426. 6 16 : A Dynam ic diagnosis of drought /waterlogging in Shanxi Province 1 1 2 GU O M u-p ing , L IU Y ue- li, HAO Shou-chang 1. Shanx i C lmi ate C enter, T aiyuan 030000, Ch ina; 2. Shanx iM eteorolog ical Bu reau, T aiyu an 030000, Ch in a) Abstract: D rough t is the m ost mi portant m eteo ro log ical disaster in Shanx i Prov ince. But up to now there is no t a scient ific and applicab le drought index for Shanx i P rovince yet. In th is paper, the d ifferen t m ethods to research drought/w aterlogg ing index w ere ana lyzed. A s a resu lt, the drought/w aterlogg ing judgem ent approaches su itab le for Shanx i P rov ince such as comprehensive judgem ent and z indexm ethods w ere presented. T he dynam ic m on-i to ring and pre-w arning service system for drough t/w aterlogg ing in Shanx i P rovincew ere estab lished and the system can mi plem ent dynam ic d iagnosis o f drought/w aterlogg ing in Shanx i P rovince from different po ints of v iew. K eywords: drought/w aterlogg ing index; dynam ic d iagnosis; m onitoring and pre-w arn ing; Shanx i P rov ince : 1582- 1576 ) , ; 800 , , 20 70, , 30% , , IPCC ): , , , 2100 100 a, , 15~ 60, , : 2004- 04- 10; : 2004- 06- 28 : 993028) : 1956- ) , , , . E-m ail: sxgh-gmp@ 163. com 70 16 , ,