9E02技术变化组织变革与就业波动来自转型期中国企业的经验.docVIP

第9组 企业 产业经济 字数 11700 技术变化、组织变革与就业波动：来自转型期中国企业的经验 宁光杰 摘要：中国经济持续30多年保持高速增长，但就业困难、失业压力仍是其面临的一个重大挑战。失业的增加与快速的技术升级有关，还是源于市场化进程中的企业改革与组织创新？运用南京市1994-2001年企业改制的调查数据，本文研究了在中国转型时期企业技术变化对就业波动的影响。研究发现，虽然有技术经费投入的企业雇佣更多的工人，但采用更合适的技术变量（人均技术经费、人均固定资产净值）进行分析，结果表明技术变化往往导致就业减少，这一结论在考虑到固定效应、变量内生性和动态问题之后仍然成立。考虑到技术的选择偏差问题，技术变化的就业效果也会有所不同。另外，我们还考察了技术变化和组织变革的联合效果：如果技术变量与国有或集体企业结合，与工会或工人参与企业决策结合，交互的就业效果都是正的，这说明制度变量能够缓解技术变化对就业的负面冲击。最后，论文给出政策含义。 关键词：技术变化；组织变革；就业 Technological Change, Organizational Reform and Employment Fluctuation: evidences from firms in transitional China Abstract: Employment difficulties and Unemployment is a big challenge faced by China economy, even though it remains a high growth rate for over 30 years. Is the rising unemployment related to the rapid technology upgrading, or is attributed to enterprise reform and organizational innovation since marketization? Using a reformed firm survey in Nanjing from 1994 to 2001, this paper studies the impact of technological change on employment fluctuation during the transitional period in China. Although firms with technological expenditure tend to employ more workers, applying the more appropriate technology indicators shows that technological change often gives rise to employment reduction. This conclusion does not change even when we consider the fixed effect, endogeneity and dynamic problems. The employment impact also differs if we consider selection bias of technology choice. Moreover, we examine the combined effect of technological change and organizational reform. When combined with state-owned or collective enterprises, trade union or employee participation in decision making, the interaction employment effect is positive, suggesting institution factors’ role in alleviating negative employment shock of technological change. We provide some policy implication in the final section. Key words: Technologi