发电系统可靠性应用研究.doc

发电系统可靠性研究(二) 摘 要 近些年来，电力系统不断向高电压、远距离、大容量方向发展，在提高经济性的同时，安全可靠性的问题也随之而来。随着电力系统规模的不断扩大，系统结构日趋复杂，电力系统的可靠性也受到人们越来越多的重视。发电系统作为电力系统的一个重要部分.在对发电系统进行可靠性分析时，通常假设电力系统的其余部分均完全可靠，也就是说在任何时刻，衡量系统是正常还是故障，要看系统发出的电力能否满足系统负荷的需要。 对发电系统尽行可靠性的定量分析，本文是建立发电容量模型。发电机组或系统在T时刻处于某种容量状态的概率叫做容量状态概率模型。它的概率分布是离散的。在实际应用中容量概率模型有两种表达式：一种是可用或有效容量概率模型；另一种是停运容量概率模型。本文使用的是有效容量概率模型。对发电系统进行容量模型的建立和降额、停运的相关计算。 关键词：发电系统；可靠性评估；容量模型  Abstract In recent years, electric power system continued to high-voltage, long-distance and large-capacity direction of the development. At the same time improve the economy, the issue of safe and reliable follow. With the size of the electric power system continues to expand, the growing complexity of system architecture, the reliability of the electric power system has been the increasing importance. Power generation system as the electric power an important part, in the power generation system reliability analysis, the assumption is usually the remainder of the electric power system are totally reliable. That is, at any time measuring system is normal or fault, it is issued by the electricity system can meet the needs of system load. The power generation system reliability of the firms do quantitative analysis, this paper is to establish generation capacity model. Generating units or systems on the T at a time when the capacity of state called the probability of capacity probability model. It is the probability distribution of discrete. In actual application capacity probabilistic model has two expressions : One is available or effective capacity probability model; Another is the capacity outage probability model. This paper is an effective capacity of a probability model.The power system model for capacity building and landing places, the outage is calculated. Key words: reliability estimate，model of capacity，electric power system 摘要 I Absteact II 1.概述 1 2.发电系统可靠性的基本概念 4 2.1 发电系统可靠性的基本概念 4 2.1.1 元件可靠性 4 2.1.2 元件状态的马尔科夫过程 7 2.2 发电系统可靠性的评估指标 9 2.2.1 发电机组的强迫停运率