股票预期价格模型及用(心理学拟合模型).docVIP

股票预期价格模型及运用 摘要 股票定价一直是人们关心的热点焦点问题，投资者在投资时常常会应用一些理论知识来指导。但对于瞬息万变的市场，人们常常会束手无策。股票定价理论的发展，从传统的定价理论，到现代定价理论，再到现代金融工程，越来越深入地研究股票的内在价值。但是，经济学本身作为一门不完善不系统的科学，仍然需要大量的研究来寻求其中的规律。至于在股票市场，一些西方的定价理论在中国的特殊坏境下却达不到预期的效果，所以寻求新的方法很必要。 本文不去研究股票的内在价值，认为股票的价值本身会在市场表达出来。本文从新的角度出发，利用投资者对股票价格的预期，根据每个价位的概率不同，用卡方分布拟合，以求得差价的期望值。然后加上股票即时价格（交易价格），便得到股票期望价格。理论上通过所有人的预期能够得到市场上股票价格的期望值，但在实际中很难操作。为了解决这个问题，本文提出用统计取样的方法来求出部分人的预期。在随机取样的前提下，能得到一个趋近于市场股票价格期望值的价格，根据此价格来指导投资。要说明的是，由于取样没有代表整体，所以也存在风险。 关键词： 股票定价 卡方分布 拟合 预期价格 统计取样 Abstract The pricing of stock, a focal problem, has been paid close attention by everyone. The investors often apply some speculative knowledge to investment. People often will be at a loss what to do because of the changing market. Stock pricing theory of development, from the traditional pricing theory, to modern pricing theory, and then to modern financial engineering, more and more in-depth research the intrinsic value of the stock. But, economics itself as an imperfect system of the science of not, still need a great deal of research to seek some rules. As for in the stock market, some western pricing theory in Chinas special atmosphere still can not reach the expected effect, so seeking new method is very necessary. This paper is not to study the intrinsic value of the stock, think that the value of the stock market will express itself in. This article from a new angle, makes use of stock price expectation of investors, According to the probability of each price, with the chi-square distribution fitting, in order to achieve the expectations of price. Adding stock instant price (market price), then get stock price expectation. In theory, through all people’ expecting could get the stock price expectations the market, but in practice, it is difficult to operate. In order to solve this problem, this paper proposes the use of statistical sampling method to ask out part of peoples expectations. Under random sampling, it can get a close to the market price of the stoc