我国地方政府债券风险防范的研究——以河北省为例.pdf

摘 要 摘 要 2009年，为了应对国际金融危机，我国实施了4万亿的经济刺激计划。在经济刺激 计划实施过程中，地方政府的融资发生了困难。为了解决地方政府的融资难题，2009 年我国开始由财政部代理地方政府发行政府债券进行融资。经过几年的发展，地方政府 债券的规模越来越大。随着地方政府债券的到期，所面临的风险问题也越来越重要。本 文通过梳理我国地方政府债券的发展历程，论述地方政府债券的风险问题，重点通过KMV 模型运用河北省的数据测算了河北省的地方政府债券的最大发债规模，通过定量分析阐 述了地方政府债券的信用风险问题，最后提出来降低风险的防范对策。 关键词 地方政府债券 风险控制 KMV模型 信用风险 I Abstract Abstract In order to cope with the international financial crisis, our country implemented the 4trillion economic stimulus plan in 2009. In the process of economic stimulus plan ,there have been difficulties in local government financing. In order to solve the difficulties in financing of local government,the ministry of finance in China agent for local governments to issue bonds in government in 2009. After years of development, the scale of the local government bonds is more and more bigger .But as the local government bond maturity, the risk problem is becoming more and more important. This article combs the development of local government debt in China, discusses the risk of local government bonds, analyzes data of Hebei province in order to calculate the risk of local government bonds in Hebei province by using the KMV model, states the credit risk of local government bond issues by quantitative analysis, and finally puts forward countermeasures to reduce the risk. Key words local government bonds risk control KMV model credit risk II 目 录