12_不确定性的考量混合浅析.pptx

Chapter 12Uncertainty Considerations不确定性;12.1 Overview－本章综述 本章讨论不确定性，特别是与火灾安全设计相关的不确定性问题。在所有的科学领域都有不确定性，就火灾安全而言，设计参量的不确定性能够在火灾安全设计和火灾安全评估中带来不确定性。;许多因素能够使火灾安全参量具有不确定的值，但这些具有不确定值的参量可以分为几类： 1. 具有一定概率分布的参量－parameters with a probability distribution of different values； 2. 具有随机值的参量－parameters with random values； 3. 参量的值不为所知的参量－parameters with unknown values； 4.在未来参量的值不为所知－ parameters with future unknown values.;Many factors can lead to fire safety parameters with uncertain values, but these parameters can be generally grouped as follows: 1. parameters with a probability distribution of different values, 2. parameters with random values, 3. parameters with unknown values and 4. parameters with future unknown values.;在火灾安全设计中，具有概率分布的参量，其成功或失效的概率，可在多维空间中以火灾安全设计划分成安全和非安全区域，进行分析。;The probability of success or failure in fire safety designs for parameters with a probability distribution, can be analyzed in a multidimensional space with the space divided by the fire safety design into safe and unsafe regions.;The following two techniques are discussed that can be used to find the cumulative probability in the safe region: 1. The Monte Carlo method which employs repeated random sampling to obtain the cumulative probability in the safe region. 2. The β reliability index method which uses the largest hypersphere that can fit into the safe region to determine the cumulative probability in the safe region.;对以下两种可用的寻求安全区域累计概率的技术方法进行讨论：The following two techniques are discussed that can be used to find the cumulative probability in the safe region: 1. 蒙特卡罗方法－The Monte Carlo method 此方法通过重复随机取样，获得安全区域的累计概率。 This method employs repeated random sampling to obtain the cumulative probability in the safe region. 2. β 可靠性指数方法－The β reliability index method 此方法使用适合于安全区域的最大超球面来确定安全区域的累计概率。 This method uses the largest hypersphere that can fit into the safe region to determine the cumulative probability in the safe region.;对不知其概率分布的不确定性参量没有标准的处理方法，其不确定量值可以通过调查来确定。;否则，就要对不确定性量值进行假设并在火灾安全工程师和