本科生毕业论文-基于功效系数法模型的企业财务预警指标设计与实证分析.docVIP

目 录 摘要 1 Abstract 2 1.引言 3 1.1本文的研究背景 3 1.2本文的研究意义 3 2.选取企业财务预警指标的原则 4 2.1全面性原则 4 2.2敏感性原则 4 2.3动态性原则 4 2.4成本效益原则 5 2.5可操作与直观性原则 5 3.构建企业财务预警指标体系 5 3.1偿债能力方面 5 3.2资产营运能力方面 6 3.3盈利能力方面 6 3.4发展能力方面 6 3.5现金流量方面 7 4.对以上财务预警指标的差异显著性检验 8 5.对剩余财务预警指标的相关性分析 14 6.企业财务预警中的功效系数法模型 17 7.对以上所设计财务预警指标模型的实证分析与检验 21 8.结论 23 参考文献 25 摘要 随着我国市场经济的发展，企业对自身财务管理活动的规范化产生了迫切需求，财务预警作为财务管理的一个分支，也逐渐发挥着越来越重要的作用，其通过收集企业在经营活动中财务数据，然后建立模型，对企业的综合财务状况进行评测，进而指出企业所面临的潜在财务风险，使经营管理者提前采取措施，以应对可能的财务危机，并使企业摆脱困境，保持持续健康的发展。本文首先选取18个财务预警指标，然后用SPSS19.0统计软件对其进行非参数检验和相关分析，最终筛选出8个对企业经营状况比较敏感的财务指标，构建企业财务预警指标体系，之后通过实证分析的方法用功效系数法对企业这8个指标进行计算与评测，以判断企业的综合财务状况，最后取得了较为不错的效果。 关键词：功效系数法模型，财务预警，非参数检验，相关分析，实证分析 Abstract With the development of market economy in China , the enterprises have an urgent demand for the specification of their own financial management activities.The financial early warning , as a branch of financial management , gradually plays an increasingly important role.It collected financial data in enterprise’s business activities , built models , evaluate the comprehensive financial status of enterprises , point out the potential financial risks faced by the enterprise so that the managers take measures in advance to response to the financial crisis , enable enterprises out of difficulties and maintain a sustained and healthy development.This paper selected 18 financial indexes at first , then selected 8 indexes which were sensitive to the enterprise’s business status with the nonparametric test and correlation analysis of statistical software spss 19.0 , and then construct enterprise financial early-warning indexes system.At last this paper calculated and evaluated the 8 indicators of enterprises with the model of efficacy coefficient method through empirical analysis to judge the enterprise’s comprehensive financial situation.The paper achieved good results. Keywords：the model of efficacy coefficient method , financial early-warning , nonparametric test , corre