基于EKC理论工业制成品出口对环境影响实证分析.docVIP

基于EKC理论的工业制成品出口对环境影响的实证分析 对外贸易在我国经济中占有及其重要的地位，改革开放近30年来，中国对外贸易规模不断扩大，我国出口贸易实力逐渐增强。随着生活水平的提高，人们对环境质量的要求也逐渐增高，然而环境污染问题却日益严重，在我国尤其是工业品造成的环境污染问题非常严重，贸易与环境污染之间的矛盾凸显。贸易与环境问题不仅是全球关注的热点，也是人类可持续发展不可忽视的问题之一。 本文选取1990年至2008年的工业制成品出口贸易数据以及环境污染数据，把EKC理论应用到国际贸易与环境的研究中，通过建立CUBIC模型，验证我国的EKC曲线的形状，在此基础上把出口贸易变量加入CUBIC模型中，着重分析工业制成品出口贸易依存度对环境的影响，对我国的工业制成品出口贸易对环境污染的影响进行了更深入的研究，在以往EKC曲线研究的基础上进行TKC检验，这是论文研究的创新点，也是对前人研究的突破，最后提出对外贸易与环境协调发展的政策建议。 一些发达国家在其经济高速发展的过程中，先忽视环境的重要性，之后又来治理环境，正如环境库兹涅茨（EKC）曲线的形态所反映的一样。中国是否能够吸取和借鉴西方发达国家的教训和经验，提早的预防或者调整目前中国环境的现状，使我国的对外贸易发展的同时，环境得到良性循环与发展，这是我国现阶段贸易与环境问题中需要深入思考的问题，也是值得研究与探讨的课题。 关键词：出口贸易，工业制成品，EKC，TKC  Abstract International trade plays an important role in our country. Reform and opening is nearly 30 years, the scale of Chinese export trade is growing. The strength of our country’s export trade is increase gradually. With the improvement of living standard, demanding of environmental quality is also increasing gradually, however, the problems of environmental pollution are growing day by day. In particular, the problems caused by industrial environmental pollution are very seriously, the contradiction between trade and environmental pollution is obvious. The issues between trade and the environment are not only the global concern, but also are one of assignable problems of human being sustainable development. This article selects industrial manufacturing exports trade data as well as environmental pollution data from 1990 to 2009. The EKC theory is applied to international trade and environmental studies, verified the shape of our country’s EKC curve, putting the export trade variable into CUBIC model, analysis the impacts of industrial products export dependence to environment, the effect of our country’s industrial products export trade to environmental pollution in more in-depth studies. On the basis of the study of the previous EKC curve to TKC test. This is the highlight of this paper, it is also the breakthrough to our predecessors studies. In addi