120720美元的动量灾难USDollarMomentumCatastrophe.docVIP

US Dollar Momentum Catastrophe美元的動量災難 Morris Hubbartt Weekly Market Update Excerpt posted Jul 20, 2012US Dollar Triangle Of Doom Chart The dollar is showing negative divergences and a price that has lost most of its momentum. On this chart, I doubt that further disruptions in the Euro zone could carry the dollar any higher than about 85. Note the bearish rising wedge pattern within the large symmetrical triangle. A symmetrical triangle is a consolidation pattern in most instances, and I think that is the case here. The rising wedge indicates that a downside break could be coming soon. As an American citizen and resident, I’m ashamed of what our dollar has become. The fundamentals are terrible. Un-payable debt and bloated social programs threaten to break the central bank. Currently, the tax revenues collected don’t even cover half of our government’s expenditures. At the end of the day, there is probably only one way to settle this debt, and that is via currency dilution. US Dollar Momentum Failure Chart This key chart continues to warn that the dollar is poised to show some seriously bearish price action. If it closes under 82.80 for two consecutive days, it would confirm that a new leg down is underway. A MACD sell signal occurred yesterday, and the recent new high in the dollar was not accompanied by new highs in either MACD or RSI. Technically, the dollar’s momentum catastrophe could have ominous price implications. From current price levels, the potential reward of a rally to 85 is vastly overshadowed by the potential risk of a decline to the symmetrical triangle target price of about 55. TLT (T-Bond Proxy) Double Top Chart There is a double top pattern in play. Beware of this investment. Note the key divergences shown by RSI and MACD at the top of the chart. The two money flow indicators at the bottom of the chart are also showing significant divergences with the price. Bond prices tend to fall as inflation rises. The bond market seems to