第八章预测供应链需求.ppt

8.1需求预测 1.需求的时间和空间特征（Spatial versus Temporal Demand） 2.尖峰需求和规律性的需求（Lumpy versus Regular Demand） 3.派生需求和独立需求（Derived versus Independent Demand） CR (2004) Prentice Hall, Inc. Classic Time Series Decomposition Model (Cont’d) Compute seasonal indices The procedure is to form a ratio of actual demand to the estimated demand for a full seasonal cycle (4 quarters). One way is as follows. t Y T Seasonal Index, S t 1 1200 957.15* 1.25** 2 700 994.29 0.70 3 900 1031.43 0.87 4 1100 1068.57 1.03 *T=920.01 ? 37.14(1)=957.15 **St=1200/957.15=1.25 CR (2004) Prentice Hall, Inc. Classic Time Series Decomposit