（参考）房产价格影响因素分析.docVIP

计量经济学课程论文 房产价格影响因素分析 —基于商品住宅房市场的实证研究 作者: 吴偲 学号: 摘要: 经过十多年的迅速发展，我国房地产业已经成为国民经济的重要支柱产业，市场发展趋于稳定，住房消费成为扩大内需的新动力和消费热点。但是，近年来我国房产价格上涨较快，部分地区房价持续飙升，上涨幅度大大超出经济总体增长水平及其他行业产品与服务的上升幅度。房价增长过快的趋势，不仅极大地影响到城市居民的生活质量，也是整个国民经济继续平稳发展的一个不稳定因素，房价问题已经成为一个引起广泛关注的重要经济问题和社会问题。 本文从房产价格的相关理论出发，主要从房产需求、房产供给、房产金融和房产宏观调控等角度对影响房价的因素展开分析。以全国及地区统计数据为基础，采用计量经济学和统计分析方法，主要从实证角度分析各因素对房价的影响。最后，根据分析结果提出改进我国房产宏观调控以稳定房价的建议。 关键词：房产价格；房产需求；房产供给；房产金融；房产宏观调控；实证分析 Abstract: The real estate industry has become a vital pillar industry of China since the development in the last decade. The market development has tended to be stable and the house-consumption has become a new driving force and hot spot of consumption to expand domestic demand. Recently, however, the house property price rose rapidly. In some regions, the house price went up sharply, with a rate far exceeding the increasing rate of the overall economy and of the goods or service price in other industries. The over-fast rising trend not only extremely influences city dwellers’ living conditions, but also is an unstable element for the macroeconomics’ smooth and sustained development. At the same time, the problem of house price has become an economic as well as a social one, drawing universal attention. This paper starts from the related theories of real estate, and then primarily analyzes the affecting factors of house price in different angles: demand, supply, finance, macroscopic readjustment and control, and other aspects. It applies econometric and statistic theories, primarily on the basis of practical analysis. Last, according to the analysis, it proposes some suggestions of the macroscopic control policies, which could help valorize housing. Key words: house property price; demand; supply; finance; macroscopic readjustment and control; practical