【论文】水库调洪过程库水位随机分布特征分析.docVIP

水库调洪过程库水位随机分布特征分析 水库坝前最高水位概率分布的推求是水库防洪安全风险计算中的一个关键环节。根据调洪过程各时段库水位的随机分布都可看作是调洪最高水位随机分布的研究实例的观点，本文首先分析了调洪过程由于风险因子影响而导致的时段风险传递机理，给出了时段分布风险的计算公式，接着从同一场洪水的调洪演算角度入手，应用随机模拟和最大熵分布的方法，进一步探讨了调洪过程库水位的随机变化特征，以此分析水库坝前最高水位的分布规律。最后，结合安康水库设计洪水的分析，说明了该随机模拟调洪演算模型的实施过程，结果表明，调洪最高水位有时并不具有正态分布的特征，所服从的分布也不具有通用性，实际中应根据各个水库和洪水的特性具体分析。 调洪演算；漫顶风险；风险传递；最大熵分布；随机模拟 The characteristics analysis of stochastic probability distributions of the reservoir levels during the flood routing Xi Qiuyi, Huang Qiang, Wang Yimin, Lin leilei ( Insitute of Water Resources and Hydroelectric Engineering, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710048 ) The derivation of probability distribution of highest flood level is a key step in the calculation of risk for reservoir flood-control safety. According to the viewpoint that other intervals’ flood levels may be seen the samples of highest flood level excluding the initial reservoir level during flood routing of reservoir, firstly, the mechanism of risk transfer induced by risk factors is analyzed and the formulation of interval distribution risk is given, then to the same flood, with the stochastic simulation and Maximum Entropy Distribution methods, the characteristics of random distribution of reservoir levels is further investigated in the paper. At last, taking the Ankang reservoir as a case study, the implementing procedure of the simulation model is demonstrated. It is shown from the example that the highest reservoir flood level doesn’t always conform to the normal distribution, and it hasn’t a general distribution form in all reservoirs, the analysis should be taken for various reservoirs and inflow floods in practice. flood routing; overtopping risk; risk transfer; Maximum Entropy distribution; Stochastic simulation 引言 水库是重要的防洪工程措施，一方面可减轻水资源短缺和水库下游遭受洪灾等风险，另一方面又不可避免地形成了大坝失事的新风险。大坝失事具有损失巨大，后果严重，发生概率低的特点。对于水库大坝的一种极值荷载情况——极值洪水作用下的防洪安全（漫坝）风险进行评估，国内外已做过广泛的研究[1-4]，在对风险因素的认识和描述以及计算方法上都取得了很大进展。根据水库防洪安全风险的定义，计算漫坝风险，需要知道水库调洪最高水位的概率分布和坝顶高程（或防浪墙高程）的概率分布，坝顶高程（或防浪墙高