TECHNOLOGCAL CYCLE AND “WAVE TYPE” PROGRESSIVE EVOLUTION OF REGIONAL DISPARITIES.docVIP

TECHNOLOGICAL CYCLE AND “WAVE TYPE” PROGRESSIVE EVOLUTION OF REGIONAL DISPARITIES HUANG Xue-Qing (NANJING UNIVERSITY OF FINANCE ＆ ECONOMICS, Nanjing 210003，Jiangsu，China; NANJING NORMAL UNIVERSITY, Nanjing 210024，Jiangsu，China) Abstract: Williamson’s hypothesis about “inverted-U curve” of the regional disparities has been supported by many empirical studies, but has been denied by many other empirical ones at the same time. This paper illustrates that such disagreements among these studies originate from the periodicity of major technological progress and the time lag of the technological diffusion. The “inverted-U curve” of the region disparity is merely the expression of the trends in the transformation of regional disparities in one period of the technological progress and diffusion. Along with the application and diffusion of new technologies as well as the start of a following technological period, a new “inverted-U curve” change of the regional disparity will begin. Therefore, other things being equal, the wave type progress of technological advance and the time lag of diffusion among regions will account for the “wave type” progressive development in the evolution of regional disparities.? Keywords: Regional Disparity, Williamson’s Hypothesis about “inverted-U curve”, Technological Progress and Diffusion, “Wave Type” Progress. 作者简介：黄雪琴(1967-)，女，南京师范大学地理科学学院人文地理专业在职博士研究生，南京财经大学经济学院经济学系副教授，硕士生导师，主要从事区域经济方面的研究。 Tel:025Email to xqhuang@263.net 技术周期与地区差距的波浪型递进演变 黄雪琴 (南京财经大学，中国江苏南京 210003；南京师范大学，中国江苏南京 210024) 摘要：许多实证研究支持了威廉姆逊的地区差距“倒U”形假说，却也有许多实证研究否定了这一假说，本文的分析认为这些研究的分歧是由于重大技术进步的周期性和技术扩散的时滞性，地区差距的倒“U”形变化只是技术进步与扩散一个周期中地区差距的变化趋势，随着新技术的应用与扩散、又一次技术周期的开始，将随之产生地区差距又一轮“倒U”形变化，因此如果忽略其他因素的变化，技术进步的这种波浪型递进及其空间扩散的时滞性将导致地区差距呈波浪型递进的演变规律。 关键词：地区差距　“倒U”形假说　技术进步与扩散　波浪型递进 自从威廉姆逊提出地区差距“倒U”形假说以来，地区差距的变化规律始终是学者关注的话题之一，大量的实证研究支持了这一假说，却也有大量的实证研究否定了这一假说，新古典增长模型为其后半部分的趋同提供理论支持，而新增长理论则为其前半部分的趋异提供理论支持。本文的分析认为这些研究的分歧源于两者研究的技术周期不一致，忽视了影响地区差距变化的最首要因素——技术进步