环境经济重点学科建设总报告.pptVIP

气候科学的重要性：多少浓度，减排多少 经济学家的作用：减排对全球经济的影响，真的很小吗？ 资料来源: Schneider and Azar (2002) Long-term technical potential renewable and nuclear energy supply 大纲定稿后有关IPCC专家会议讨论的新议题Additional issues emerging from AR4 preparatory Expert meetings 2003-2004 Relation climate mitigation , air quality improvement and health; Energy requirements to undertake effective adapatation; Interdependencies between vulnerability adaptation to climate change mitigation in different sectors. International co-operation in mitigation ( adaptation) research ? Climate change mitigation research is fragmented and not integrated; Integrated assessment growing but not yet matured Research funds are dwindling especially on climate change mitigation; Little attention is given to “Gaps in knowledge” from IPCC assessments More is needed from “the Scientific Technological Community”? A possible international RD programme on mitigation of climate change 中国参与减排的国际压力：国际新动向：抓大放小(不同类别国家温室气体排放总量（2001年，百万吨CO2当量） 中国温室气体排放趋势 Mitigation commitments - decision rules ‘Potential to mitigate’ determines the amount of reductions to be carried out domestically. Capability (and responsibility) determine the amount a country is obliged to pay Responsibility determines the legal status of the commitments (binding / conditional / voluntary) Decision rules for determinig commitments 中国参与减排的国内挑战：工业化阶段 工业化进程 城市化进程 基础设施：实物资本（physical infrastructure）与制度（institutional infrastructure) 建设 产业升级：劳动力密集==》资本密集==》知识密集 工业化阶段 逆工业化国家（De-industrialising countries） 工业化国家(industrialised) 新兴工业化国家 (newly industrialised) 工业化进程中的国家 (rapidly industrialising) * IPCC 第四次评估报告 第三工作组的有关情况讨论 气候变化暑期研讨班 北京 2004年9月1日 内 容 气象科学与社会经济 IPCC AR4 WG3 大纲 中国关注的内容 定稿后的大纲 有关新问题 有关问题讨论 焦点：发展中国家参与减排 中国：能够减排么？ 资料来源: Own graphic, based on IPCC (1999), ScenGen model and UN/WHO 稳定在450pm的排放情景（年排放） Source: Nakicenovics et al, IPCC,2000 2100 Total Energy Demand for SRES scenario range: 515-2737 EJ/yr Nuclear total:7700- 462000 EJ average 77-4