美国经济复苏道路漫长.docVIP

Are We There Yet? 美国经济复苏道路漫长 America’s recovery will be much slower than that from most recessions; but the government can help a bit. 美国此次经济复苏所需的时间比以往所遇到的绝大多数经济衰退都要慢得多，但是政府可以采取相关措施。 “WHITHER goest thou, America?” “美利坚，你，路在何方？” That question, posed by Jack Kerouac on behalf of the Beat generation half a century ago, is the biggest uncertainty hanging over the world economy. 半个世纪之前，“垮掉的一代”代表作家杰克·凯鲁亚克就提及了这个悬而未决并且困扰全球经济发展的最不确定因素。 And it reflects the foremost worry for American voters, who go to the polls for the congressional mid-term elections on November 2nd with the country’s unemployment rate stubbornly stuck at nearly one in ten. 同时，这个问题也反映出美国选民们的最大担忧，11月2日国会中期选举在即，而美国民众几近10%的失业率仍旧平稳保持。 They should prepare themselves for a long, hard ride. 美国应该为接下来的这一场旷日持久、艰苦卓绝的斗争做好充足准备。 The most wrenching recession since the 1930s ended a year ago. 自上世纪30年代以来最严重的经济衰退于一年前结束。 But the recovery—none too powerful to begin with—slowed sharply earlier this year. 但经济复苏开端不够强劲有力，并且势头在今年早些时候也急速放慢。 GDP grew by a feeble 1.6% at an annual pace in the second quarter, and seems to have been stuck somewhere similar since. 第二季度GDP的年增长速度仅维持在1.6%，自次以后便毫无起色。 The housing market slumped after temporary tax incentives to buy a home expired. 政府对于购买住房的户主给予短期的税收鼓励政策，但房地产市场行情仍旧一路下跌。 So few private jobs were being created that unemployment looked more likely to rise than fall. 私营领域几乎没有出现新的工作岗位，导致失业率似乎不降反升。 Fears grew over the summer that if this deceleration continued, America’s economy would slip back into recession. 整个夏天，人们都在担心，如果复苏继续放缓，美国经济可能会再次滑至衰退的深渊。 Fortunately, those worries now seem exaggerated. 可幸的是，那些担心可谓是杞人忧天了。 Part of the weakness of second-quarter GDP was probably because of a temporary surge in imports from China. 第二季度GDP增长出现疲软态势的部分原因可能是由于从中国进口的暂时性上涨而引起的。 The latest statistics, from reasonably good retail sales in August to falling claims for unemployment benefits, point to an economy that, though still weak, is not slumping further. 从八月份相当可观的销售业绩到对失业津贴需求的持续下降，最新的统计数据都显示，经济复