66.Prospect of Relations Between Mainland and Taiwan吴 丰.pptVIP

Prospect of Relations Between Mainland and Taiwan Name ： 吴 丰 Major ： Computer science and technology The current state and its historical basis  Concerning the current state, two statements summarize the situation. Economic relations are excellent and have made great progress. Political relations are characterized by conflicting stands. Geographically, the mainland and Taiwan used to be a whole. Before the sino-Japanese war of 1895 Taiwan was part of china and inhabited mainly by Chinese immigrants who had arrived during the Ming Dynasty. China gave up her sovereignty over Taiwan to Japan by the treaty signed after china’s defeat in 1895. After the defeat of Japan in the Second world war in 1945 ,sovereignty of Taiwan was returned to china. Medium Term Prospects What are the possible developments in the next 10 to 20 years ? It could range from military conflict to continuation of the status quo with gradual improvement by negotiation but not unification. The worse case is military conflict. This appears to be very unlikely for several reasons .The most important point, most leaders in china realize that military conquest of Taiwan is a bad idea for the purpose of getting support from the Taiwan people, and it is not worth the cost. The mainland government has difficult and demanding task of developing the economy and improving the political and legal systems in the mainland itself . Role of Continued Dialogues Why is a continued dialogue important? It is to prevent deterioration of political relations. The PRC government has said that as long as the dialogue continues and as long as progress is made towards unification, it is unlikely to use force, and it has not openly given up the use of force for the unification of Taiwan .In this sense the mainland government is under pressure. Long Term Possibilities If the status quo is likely to continue in the near future, when will it end ? In