【转载】芒格主义.docVIP

【转载】芒格主义 2012-06-26 22:52:09| 分类： 默认分类 | 标签： |字号大中小 订阅 . 本文转载自xlli777《芒格主义》 1 ”Most people are too fretful, they worry too much.Success means being very patient, but aggressive when it’s time.” 看完这条可不要too aggressive哈。芒格本人曾经就因为用margin给自己带来过大麻烦。我这个朋友也喜欢用margin，非常危险。 1，大部分人都太浮躁、担心得太多。成功需要非常平静耐心，但是机会来临的时候也要足够进取。 2 ”Using [a stock’s] volatility as a measure of risk is nuts. Risk to us is 1 the risk of permanent loss of capital, or 2 the risk of inadequate return. Some great businesses have very volatile returns – for example, See’s [a candy company owned 想想周围有多少人还在用“股票的波动性”来衡量风险吧。 2，根据股票的波动性来判断风险是很傻的。我们认为只有两种风险：一，血本无归；二，回报不足。有些很好的生意也是波动性很大的，比如Sees糖果通常一年有两个季度都是亏钱的。反倒是有些烂透了的公司生意业绩很稳定。 3 ”I think that, every time you saw the word EBITDA [earnings], you should substitute the word “bullshit” earnings.” 3，所谓的“息税折摊前利润”就是狗屎。 所以看到在说EBITDA的公司时就要小心了，因为他们在用“狗屎”来说服你。 4 “Warren talks about these discounted cash flows. I’ve never seen him do one.”?”It’s true,” replied Buffett. “If the value of a company doesn’t just scream out at you, it’s too close.” 就是毛估估的意思？ 4，巴菲特有时会提到“折现现金流”，但是我从来没见过他算这个。（巴菲特答曰“没错，如果还要算才能得出的价值那就太不足恃了”） 5 ”If you buy something because it’s undervalued, then you have to think about selling it when it approaches your calculation of its intrinsic value. That’s hard. But if you buy a few great companies, then you can sit on your ass. That’s a good thing.” 这条大概要花很多年才能真明白，大概就是未来现金流折现的意思。我觉得自己现在大概有点明白了。 5，如果你买了一个价值低估的股票，你就要等到价格达到你算出来的内在价值时卖掉，这是很难算的。但是如果你买了一个伟大的公司，你就坐那儿呆着就行了。 6 ”We bought a doomed textile mill [Berkshire Hathaway] and a California SL [Wesco] just before a calamity. Both were bought at a discount to liquidation value.” 这个大概就是人们常说的价值陷阱，如果理解未来现金流折现的概念就容易理解芒格说的是啥了。所以未必市值低过净资产甚至现金的股票就值得投资，除非你能看懂你买的是什么。 6，我们买过一个纺织厂（Berkshire Hathaway）和一个加州的存贷行（Wesco），这俩后来都带来了灾难。但是我们买的时候，价格都比清算价值打折还低。 7 ”For society, the Internet is wonderful, but for capitalists, it will be a net negative. It will increase efficiency, but lots of things increase efficiency without in