四六级与考研英语阅读资料035.doc

Emerging economies The Great Deceleration The emerging-market slowdown is not the beginning of a bust. But it is a turning-point for the world economy Jul 27th 2013 |From the print edition Tweet WHEN a champion sprinter falls short of his best speeds, it takes a while to determine whether he is temporarily on poor form or has permanently lost his edge. The same is true with emerging markets, the world economy’s 21st-century sprinters. After a decade of surging growth, in which they led a global boom and then helped pull the world economy forwards in the face of the financial crisis, the emerging giants have slowed sharply. China will be lucky if it manages to hit its official target of 7.5% growth in 2013, a far cry from the double-digit rates that the country had come to expect in the 2000s. Growth in India around 5% , Brazil and Russia around 2.5% is barely half what it was at the height of the boom. Collectively, emerging markets may just match last year’s pace of 5%. That sounds fast compared with the sluggish rich world, but it is the slowest emerging-economy expansion in a decade, barring 2009 when the rich world slumped. In this section The Great Deceleration The Unsteady States of America Don’t let the crocodile cheat again Licence to grow Very long till you reign over us Reprints This marks the end of the dramatic first phase of the emerging-market era, which saw such economies jump from 38% of world output to 50% measured at purchasing-power parity, or PPP over the past decade. Over the next ten years emerging economies will still rise, but more gradually. The immediate effect of this deceleration should be manageable. But the longer-term impact on the world economy will be profound. Running out of puff In the past, periods of emerging-market boom have tended to be followed by busts which helps explain why so few poor countries have become rich ones . A determined pessimist can find reasons to fret today, pointing in particular to the risks of an