Predication Method for China’s Civil Aviation Fuel Consumption.docVIP

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2016-10-04 发布于北京
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Predication Method for China’s Civil Aviation Fuel Consumption.doc

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Predication Method for China’s Civil Aviation Fuel Consumption.doc

Predication Method for China’s Civil Aviation Fuel Consumption 　　Abstract With the China’s civil aviation industry gradual marketoriented and the rapid development of China’s economy， China’s civil aviation transportation fuel consumption has grown significantly in nearly past three decades. Therefore， it’s a very important strategic significance of the prediction of China’s civil aviation transportation fuel consumption. In this paper， gray system and neural network approach， combined with China’s civil aviation industry 1980-2010 total traffic volume of the data， we establish gray system GM （1，1） model and BP neural network model for civil aviation transport volume. Training and simulation of the back propagation neutral network model and the gray system GM（1，1） used MATLAB. BP neural network modeling takes into account in three factors： the number of aircraft aviation industry， flight hours and total turnover. The fitting precision of the gray system GM（1，1） model is 64.2% while the fitting precision of the back propagation neutral network model is 90.16%. Thus， the back propagation neutral network model is better for estimating Civil aviation fuel consumption. 　　Key words： China’s civil aviation industry； Fuel consumption； BP neural network； GM（1，1）　　 INTRODUCTION 　　China’s civil aviation industry separate from the military jurisdiction and gradually return to the market since 1980， has more than 30 years. In three decades of marketoriented process， China’s civil aviation industry has experienced rapid development. We can say that China’s rapid economic development has effectively led the aviation industry. In this process， China’s civil aviation industry has grown， the number and size of civil aviation enterprises expanding. There are six state-owned airlines in China’s aviation industry， and it was 43 in the end of 2010. The categories include state-owned airlines， private airlines and joint venture airlines. At the same time， China’s civil aviation i