自然灾害对经济长影响的实证研究.docVIP

自然灾害对经济增长影响的实证研究 ——基于动态异质面板模型 The Empirical research on Economic Influence of Natural Disasters ——Based on the Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Model 安徽财经大学 宋峰、黄蓓、李小庆 摘要：本文在新古典增长模型基础上建立自然灾害与经济增长的理论模型国际紧急灾害数据库(EM-DAT)美国夕法尼亚大学国际比较研究中心的宾州世界表（Penn World Table 6.3）运用动态异质面板模型全球4个国家1960-2007年间自然灾害与经济增长的关系了实证分析。本文通过固定效应模型和随机效应模型二者关系，运用动态异质面板模型作进一步分析实证结果表明动态异质面板模型优越性自然灾害长期经济增长。最后指出了研究中的不足，并提出了未来的改进方向。 关键词：自然灾害；经济增长；动态异质面板模型Abstract: The recent years have witnessed frequent natural disasters all over the world. In order to analyze the impact on economic growth, this paper, based on the theoretical model of natural disasters and economic growth developing from the neoclassical growth model and according to relevant data of the International Emergency Disasters Database (EM-DAT) and Penn World Table 6.3 from American University of Pennsylvania Center for international Comparison, uses dynamic heterogeneous panel model to give empirical analysis to the relationship between natural disasters and economic growth in the filtered 45 countries between 1960-2007. With the help of relevant experience at home and abroad, This study firstly explores the initial relationship between the two through the fixed effect model and the random effect model, and then use dynamic heterogeneous panel model for further analysis. The empirical results show that the dynamic heterogeneous panel model has more advantages. Overall, natural disasters promote long-term economic growth, and inhibit short-term economic growth. There exist different short-term effects resulting from different levels of economic development to each specific country. Finally, the paper points out the deficiencies and proposes future improvement direction. Keywords: Natural disasters; Economic growth; Dynamic heterogeneous panel model 字典 自然灾害为自然环境本身所固有的现象，在威胁人类生存的同时，还给经济社会发展造成了巨大压力；反之，经济社会发展对自然环境直接或间接累积形成的负面影响又导致了自然灾害的发生频率和致灾程度进一步加大。仅就近几年而言，寥寥数例足以让闻者无不为之动容。2008年5月12日，四川汶川发生8.0级大地震——新中国成立以来波及范围最大、破坏性最强的一次地震，重创约50