《投资分析与组合管理 Frank K. Reilly》ch12.pptVIP

Lecture Presentation Software to accompanyInvestment Analysis and Portfolio ManagementSeventh Editionby Frank K. Reilly Keith C. Brown Chapter 12Stock Market Analysis Questions to be answered: How do we apply the basic reduced form dividend discount model (DDM) to the valuation of the aggregate stock market? What would be the prevailing value of the market as presented by the SP 400 based upon the reduced form DDM? What would be the prevailing value of the market (SP 400) based upon the value of free cash flow to equity (FCFE) model? Chapter 12Stock Market Analysis What are the two components involved in the two-part valuation procedure? Given the two components in the valuation procedure, which is more volatile? What steps are involved in estimating the earnings per share for an aggregate market series? What variables affect the aggregate operating profit margin and how do they affect it? Chapter 12Stock Market Analysis What are the variables that determine the level and changes in the market earnings multiplier? How do you arrive at an expected market value and an expected rate of return for the stock market? What has happened to the values for the other relative valuation ratios - i.e., the P/BV, P/CF, and P/S ratios? Chapter 12Stock Market Analysis What additional factors must be considered when you apply this microanalysis approach to the valuation of stock markets around the world? What are some differences between stock market statistics for the U.S. versus other countries? Applying the DDM Valuation Model to the Market The stream of expected returns The time pattern of expected returns The required rate of return on the investment Applying the DDM Valuation Model to the Market Determinants of the Earnings Multiplier: 1. The expected dividend payout ratio 2. The required rate of return on the stock 3. The expected growth rate of dividends for the stock Market Valuation Using the Reduced Form DDM Estimating k and g for the U.S. equity market The