全球变暖背景下的水安全问题-中国气候变化.ppt

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 谢谢大家！ Possible climate change in China21世纪我国可能的气候变化 Precipitation：Increase in most areas, Decrease in Northern China and North-eastern China before 2040 / 大多数地区降水增加，但华北和东北可能减少 Temperature / 气温变化：2030，1.7℃；2050，2.2℃ Probability of flood and drought hazards would increase / 洪涝干旱灾害可能增加 The pattern of south-flood and north-drought would aggravate. A2 scenario Change in runoff distribution under the scenario A2 2071-2100年A2情景下的径流分布变化 Projected water resources distribution 未来水资源分布变化 Similar to that under scenario A2, exacerbating the instability of water system / B2情景下的水资源类似A2， 水资源系统可能更加不稳定 Change in runoff distribution under the scenario B2 2071-2100年B2情景下的径流分布变化 B2 scenario Projected water resources distribution 未来水资源分布变化 Sensitivity /敏感性 Sensitivity of hydrology to climate change is response degree of hydrological variable to climate change. High response under the same climate change means more sensitive to climate change Cold region：Yilihe River 高寒山区：伊犁河 Semi-arid region：Yellow R 半干旱区：黄河 Semi-humid region：Huai R 半湿润区：淮河 Humid region：Dongjiang R 湿润区：东江 Study basin 研究流域 Sensitivity of WR to Climate Change 水资源系统对气候变化的敏感性 T RISE: increases Spring discharge, decreases runoff in other seasons 气温升高降增加春季径流，减少其它季节径流量 Surface runoff: more sensitive to climate change 地表径流对气候变化更为敏感 Human activities: could decrease sensitivity of runoff 人类活动能够在一点程度上降低水资源对气候变化的敏感性 Yilihe River 伊犁河 Yellow River 黄河 Sensitivity of WR to Climate Change 水资源系统对气候变化的敏感性 Precipitation change: result in larger runoff change than T does 对降水变化比对温度变化的响应更为敏感 Same change range: P+ result in larger runoff change than P- 降水增加比减少对径流的影响更显著 Arid region: more sensitive; while humid region less 干旱区对气候变化响应比湿润区更敏感 Huaihe River 淮河 Dongjiang River 东江 Sensitivity of WR to Climate Change 水资源系统对气候变化的敏感性 Sensitivity comparison of Hydro-variables 不同水文变量敏感性比较 Response Law：similar between actual evaporation and soil moisture 实际蒸发和土壤湿度对气候变化的响应规律类似 P c