操作管理-决策工具.pptVIP

Operations ManagementDecision-Making ToolsModule A Outline The Decision Process in Operations Fundamentals of Decision Making Decision Tables Decision Making Under Risk Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) Decision Trees A More Complex Decision Tree Learning Objectives State the decision process Describe decision tables trees Explain decision making under risk Compute expected monetary value Use decision tables trees to make decisions Models, and the Techniques of Scientific Management Can Help Managers To: Gain deeper insight into the nature of business relationships Find better ways to assess values in such relationships; and See a way of reducing, or at least understanding, uncertainty that surrounds business plans and actions Steps to Good Decisions Define problem influencing factors Establish decision criteria Select decision-making tool (model) Identify evaluate alternatives using decision-making tool (model) Select best alternative Implement decision Advantages of Using Models They are less expensive and disruptive than experimenting with the real world system They allow operations managers to ask “What if” types of questions They are built for management problems and encourage management input They force a consistent and systematic approach to the analysis of problems They require managers to be specific about constraints and goals relating to a problem They can help reduce the time needed in decision making Limitations of Models They may be expensive and time-consuming to develop and test They are often misused and misunderstood (and feared) because of their mathematical complexity They tend to downplay the role and value of nonquantifiable information They often have assumptions that oversimplify the variables of the real world 决策过程The Decision-Making Process 问题的元素Elements of a Problem 呈现决策问题解决的方法 决策树Decision trees 决策表Decision tables 决策论Fundamentals of Decision Theory 有三种决策模式: 在确定环境下作决策Decision making under certaint