试述我国货币供应与通货膨胀.doc

试述我国货币供应量与通货膨胀 之间的关系 目 录 摘要　- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - １ 前言 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -2 理论分析 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -4 研究综述 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 5 货币数量论- - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 5 实证检验 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -6 数据分析 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -6 模型检验 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 9 结论 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -10 参考文献- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 11 摘要 　　为应对金融危机对我国经济产生的衰退影响，2008年11月09日务院常务会议确定了当前进一步扩大内需、促进经济增长的十项措施，到2010年底约需投资4万亿元人民币。随着“4万亿”计划逐渐实施，宏观经济指标居民消费物价指数CPI从09年的低谷也开始逐月走高，2011年7月CPI同比增长高达了6.5% 普通消费者感觉物价飞涨，生活成本剧增Abstract 　 In response to the financial crisis on Chinas economic recession, on November 9, 2008 business school executive meeting to determine the current further expanding domestic demand and promote economic growth of ten measures, about investment of RMB 4 trillion yuan by the end of 2010. As 4 trillion plan implementation, consu- mer price index, macro economic indicators CPI since 09 trough is higher month by month, in July 2011, the CPI rose as high as 6.5%, ordinary consumers feel soaring prices, the cost of living. Due to Chinas current monetary supply M0, M1, M2 three, this paper make use of the money supply and inflation since 1992 data , using the graphic method and model test , the money supply and inflation at all levels of correlation and causality analysis inspection. And through the empirical analysis to find ? Key words: Inflation; The money supply; M0;　M1;　M2; The time series 试述我国货币供应量与通货膨胀 之间的关系 前言 　　货币供应量，是指一国在某一时点上为社会经济运转服务的货币存量，它由包括中央银行在内的金融机构供应的存款货币和现金货币两部分构成。 参照国际通用原则，根据我国实际情况，中国人民银行将我国货币供应量指标分为以下四个层次： M0：流通中的现金；M1：M0+企业活期存款+机关团体部队存款+农村存款+个人持有的信用卡类存款；M2：M1+城乡居民储蓄存款+企业存款中具有定期性质的存款+外币存款+信托类存款；其中，M1 是通常所说的狭义货币量，流动性较强，是国家中央银行重点调控对象。M2 是广义货币量，M2与M1的差额是准货币，流动性较弱通货膨胀指因货币供给大于货币实际需求，也即现实购买力大于产出供给，导致货币贬值，而引起